Icy's projections of the national debt.
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Icy's projections of the national debt.

  1. #1
    Icy
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    Default Icy's projections of the national debt.

    The best case scenario.

    The white-house is calming an average of 5.282% GDP growth over the next 6 years. This is bullshit, but lets use it anyways.

    The best ever Surplus to GDP ratio was 4.6%, historically we've only had 13 events of a surplus with the average being 1.3%. We will use 1.3% just for fun and make it consistent over the years (which will never happen).

    These numbers are in billions of dollars. These are an extension of the data found here: Historical Tables | The White House

    Spending Debt GDP
    2018 estimate $4,808.48 $21,046.72 $21,444.43
    2019 estimate $5,062.45 $20,753.21 $22,577.07
    2020 estimate $5,329.84 $20,444.21 $23,769.55
    2021 estimate $5,611.35 $20,118.88 $25,025.00
    2022 estimate $5,907.73 $19,776.38 $26,346.77
    2023 estimate $6,219.76 $19,415.78 $27,738.35
    2024 estimate $6,548.27 $19,036.13 $29,203.43
    2025 estimate $6,894.14 $18,636.44 $30,745.89
    2026 estimate $7,258.27 $18,215.63 $32,369.82
    2027 estimate $7,641.64 $17,772.60 $34,079.53
    2028 estimate $8,045.25 $17,306.16 $35,879.53
    2029 estimate $8,470.19 $16,815.09 $37,774.61
    2030 estimate $8,917.56 $16,298.08 $39,769.79
    2031 estimate $9,388.57 $15,753.77 $41,870.34
    2032 estimate $9,884.46 $15,180.71 $44,081.84
    2033 estimate $10,406.53 $14,577.37 $46,410.15
    2034 estimate $10,956.18 $13,942.18 $48,861.43
    2035 estimate $11,534.86 $13,273.43 $51,442.19
    2036 estimate $12,144.11 $12,569.36 $54,159.25
    2037 estimate $12,785.54 $11,828.10 $57,019.83
    2038 estimate $13,460.84 $11,047.69 $60,031.49
    2039 estimate $14,171.81 $10,226.06 $63,202.23
    2040 estimate $14,920.34 $9,361.03 $66,540.43
    2041 estimate $15,708.40 $8,450.32 $70,054.95
    2042 estimate $16,538.08 $7,491.50 $73,755.10
    2043 estimate $17,411.59 $6,482.05 $77,650.69
    2044 estimate $18,331.23 $5,419.27 $81,752.03
    2045 estimate $19,299.44 $4,300.36 $86,070.00
    2046 estimate $20,318.80 $3,122.35 $90,616.03
    2047 estimate $21,391.99 $1,882.12 $95,402.17
    2048 estimate $22,521.87 $576.39 $100,441.11
    2049 estimate $23,711.43 -$798.31 $105,746.19

    "We can't cut our way to prosperity" - P. B.O. Yesterday.

    His definition of prosperity is different than mine.

    Here is what happens if we use the historical average of deficit to GDP of -3.2%.

    Spending Debt GDP
    2018 estimate $4,808.48 $22,011.71 $21,444.43
    2019 estimate $5,062.45 $22,734.18 $22,577.07
    2020 estimate $5,329.84 $23,494.81 $23,769.55
    2021 estimate $5,611.35 $24,295.61 $25,025.00
    2022 estimate $5,907.73 $25,138.70 $26,346.77
    2023 estimate $6,219.76 $26,026.33 $27,738.35
    2024 estimate $6,548.27 $26,960.84 $29,203.43
    2025 estimate $6,894.14 $27,944.71 $30,745.89
    2026 estimate $7,258.27 $28,980.54 $32,369.82
    2027 estimate $7,641.64 $30,071.09 $34,079.53
    2028 estimate $8,045.25 $31,219.23 $35,879.53
    2029 estimate $8,470.19 $32,428.02 $37,774.61
    2030 estimate $8,917.56 $33,700.65 $39,769.79
    2031 estimate $9,388.57 $35,040.50 $41,870.34
    2032 estimate $9,884.46 $36,451.12 $44,081.84
    2033 estimate $10,406.53 $37,936.25 $46,410.15
    2034 estimate $10,956.18 $39,499.81 $48,861.43
    2035 estimate $11,534.86 $41,145.96 $51,442.19
    2036 estimate $12,144.11 $42,879.06 $54,159.25
    2037 estimate $12,785.54 $44,703.69 $57,019.83
    2038 estimate $13,460.84 $46,624.70 $60,031.49
    2039 estimate $14,171.81 $48,647.17 $63,202.23
    2040 estimate $14,920.34 $50,776.47 $66,540.43
    2041 estimate $15,708.40 $53,018.23 $70,054.95
    2042 estimate $16,538.08 $55,378.39 $73,755.10
    2043 estimate $17,411.59 $57,863.21 $77,650.69
    2044 estimate $18,331.23 $60,479.28 $81,752.03
    2045 estimate $19,299.44 $63,233.52 $86,070.00
    2046 estimate $20,318.80 $66,133.23 $90,616.03
    2047 estimate $21,391.99 $69,186.10 $95,402.17
    2048 estimate $22,521.87 $72,400.21 $100,441.11
    2049 estimate $23,711.43 $75,784.09 $105,746.19

    Here it is using historical average GDP and historical average deficit to GDP.

    Spending Debt GDP
    2018 estimate $4,722.53 $21,999.45 $21,061.13
    2019 estimate $4,883.10 $22,696.32 $21,777.21
    2020 estimate $5,049.12 $23,416.88 $22,517.64
    2021 estimate $5,220.79 $24,161.95 $23,283.24
    2022 estimate $5,398.30 $24,932.34 $24,074.87
    2023 estimate $5,581.84 $25,728.93 $24,893.41
    2024 estimate $5,771.62 $26,552.61 $25,739.79
    2025 estimate $5,967.86 $27,404.28 $26,614.94
    2026 estimate $6,170.77 $28,284.92 $27,519.85
    2027 estimate $6,380.57 $29,195.50 $28,455.52
    2028 estimate $6,597.51 $30,137.03 $29,423.01
    2029 estimate $6,821.83 $31,110.58 $30,423.39
    2030 estimate $7,053.77 $32,117.23 $31,457.79
    2031 estimate $7,293.60 $33,158.11 $32,527.35
    2032 estimate $7,541.58 $34,234.37 $33,633.28
    2033 estimate $7,797.99 $35,347.23 $34,776.81
    2034 estimate $8,063.12 $36,497.92 $35,959.23
    2035 estimate $8,337.27 $37,687.74 $37,181.84
    2036 estimate $8,620.74 $38,918.02 $38,446.02
    2037 estimate $8,913.84 $40,190.12 $39,753.19
    2038 estimate $9,216.91 $41,505.47 $41,104.80
    2039 estimate $9,530.29 $42,865.55 $42,502.36
    2040 estimate $9,854.32 $44,271.86 $43,947.44
    2041 estimate $10,189.37 $45,726.00 $45,441.65
    2042 estimate $10,535.80 $47,229.57 $46,986.67
    2043 estimate $10,894.02 $48,784.27 $48,584.21
    2044 estimate $11,264.42 $50,391.82 $50,236.08
    2045 estimate $11,647.41 $52,054.03 $51,944.10
    2046 estimate $12,043.42 $53,772.76 $53,710.20
    2047 estimate $12,452.90 $55,549.92 $55,536.35
    2048 estimate $12,876.29 $57,387.51 $57,424.59
    2049 estimate $13,314.09 $59,287.57 $59,377.02
    Last edited by Icy; 01-07-2013 at 11:07 PM.

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  3. #2
    Colts fan & Stoker owner RitcheyRch's Avatar
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    Either way we are focked.
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    Red Blooded American The Doctor's Avatar
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    These mindless sheep now outnumber the productive class and thinkers. It's really that simple.

    The current administration believes "You can tax your way to prosperity" and that "Spending cuts will hurt our economy" so there is no possible hope to ever see a balanced budget in America again as this group will devastate the economy for another four years and finish off what was the greatest nation in the world. Economically, we have already fallen to 7th and we continue to fall under this fraudulent leadership regime.

    Until the productive class is finally killed off and all the entitlements and government positions dry up will sound economic principals start to make sense to the sheep and by then it will be far too late. Our debtors will take ownership by then.
    The best things in life aren't things!

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    Senior Member SBjet's Avatar
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    Bwa ha ha. Thanks for the laugh, Icy. The debt gets paid DOWN in the first projection (starting in 2018).
    As I've been telling peeps, Obama stated that he had a proposal to "cut" spending over the next 10 yrs. The media reported this as "true." Guess what? Obama is outta here in 4 yrs. Anybody who thinks O is gonna cut spending in yrs. 5-10 should consider himself stupid.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Brown View Post
    I'm still chuckling at being "poo-pooed" for straying off topic. Awesome.

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    Senior Member AzMandella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBjet View Post
    Bwa ha ha. Thanks for the laugh, Icy. The debt gets paid DOWN in the first projection (starting in 2018).
    As I've been telling peeps, Obama stated that he had a proposal to "cut" spending over the next 10 yrs. The media reported this as "true." Guess what? Obama is outta here in 4 yrs. Anybody who thinks O is gonna cut spending in yrs. 5-10 should consider himself stupid.
    You got that right. According to O we do not have a spending problem.
    Obama to Boehner: 'We Don't Have a Spending Problem'
    If you voted for Obama to prove you were not racist, then you better find someone else to vote for to prove your not stupid.

  7. #6
    Senior Member Jake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AzMandella View Post
    You got that right. According to O we do not have a spending problem.
    Obama to Boehner: 'We Don't Have a Spending Problem'


    so wrong, theres still plenty of other peoples money out there to be spent!

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