The best case scenario.

The white-house is calming an average of 5.282% GDP growth over the next 6 years. This is bullshit, but lets use it anyways.

The best ever Surplus to GDP ratio was 4.6%, historically we've only had 13 events of a surplus with the average being 1.3%. We will use 1.3% just for fun and make it consistent over the years (which will never happen).

These numbers are in billions of dollars. These are an extension of the data found here: Historical Tables | The White House

Spending Debt GDP 2018 estimate $4,808.48 $21,046.72 $21,444.43 2019 estimate $5,062.45 $20,753.21 $22,577.07 2020 estimate $5,329.84 $20,444.21 $23,769.55 2021 estimate $5,611.35 $20,118.88 $25,025.00 2022 estimate $5,907.73 $19,776.38 $26,346.77 2023 estimate $6,219.76 $19,415.78 $27,738.35 2024 estimate $6,548.27 $19,036.13 $29,203.43 2025 estimate $6,894.14 $18,636.44 $30,745.89 2026 estimate $7,258.27 $18,215.63 $32,369.82 2027 estimate $7,641.64 $17,772.60 $34,079.53 2028 estimate $8,045.25 $17,306.16 $35,879.53 2029 estimate $8,470.19 $16,815.09 $37,774.61 2030 estimate $8,917.56 $16,298.08 $39,769.79 2031 estimate $9,388.57 $15,753.77 $41,870.34 2032 estimate $9,884.46 $15,180.71 $44,081.84 2033 estimate $10,406.53 $14,577.37 $46,410.15 2034 estimate $10,956.18 $13,942.18 $48,861.43 2035 estimate $11,534.86 $13,273.43 $51,442.19 2036 estimate $12,144.11 $12,569.36 $54,159.25 2037 estimate $12,785.54 $11,828.10 $57,019.83 2038 estimate $13,460.84 $11,047.69 $60,031.49 2039 estimate $14,171.81 $10,226.06 $63,202.23 2040 estimate $14,920.34 $9,361.03 $66,540.43 2041 estimate $15,708.40 $8,450.32 $70,054.95 2042 estimate $16,538.08 $7,491.50 $73,755.10 2043 estimate $17,411.59 $6,482.05 $77,650.69 2044 estimate $18,331.23 $5,419.27 $81,752.03 2045 estimate $19,299.44 $4,300.36 $86,070.00 2046 estimate $20,318.80 $3,122.35 $90,616.03 2047 estimate $21,391.99 $1,882.12 $95,402.17 2048 estimate $22,521.87 $576.39 $100,441.11 2049 estimate $23,711.43 -$798.31 $105,746.19

"We can't cut our way to prosperity" - P. B.O. Yesterday.

His definition of prosperity is different than mine.

Here is what happens if we use the historical average of deficit to GDP of -3.2%.

Spending Debt GDP 2018 estimate $4,808.48 $22,011.71 $21,444.43 2019 estimate $5,062.45 $22,734.18 $22,577.07 2020 estimate $5,329.84 $23,494.81 $23,769.55 2021 estimate $5,611.35 $24,295.61 $25,025.00 2022 estimate $5,907.73 $25,138.70 $26,346.77 2023 estimate $6,219.76 $26,026.33 $27,738.35 2024 estimate $6,548.27 $26,960.84 $29,203.43 2025 estimate $6,894.14 $27,944.71 $30,745.89 2026 estimate $7,258.27 $28,980.54 $32,369.82 2027 estimate $7,641.64 $30,071.09 $34,079.53 2028 estimate $8,045.25 $31,219.23 $35,879.53 2029 estimate $8,470.19 $32,428.02 $37,774.61 2030 estimate $8,917.56 $33,700.65 $39,769.79 2031 estimate $9,388.57 $35,040.50 $41,870.34 2032 estimate $9,884.46 $36,451.12 $44,081.84 2033 estimate $10,406.53 $37,936.25 $46,410.15 2034 estimate $10,956.18 $39,499.81 $48,861.43 2035 estimate $11,534.86 $41,145.96 $51,442.19 2036 estimate $12,144.11 $42,879.06 $54,159.25 2037 estimate $12,785.54 $44,703.69 $57,019.83 2038 estimate $13,460.84 $46,624.70 $60,031.49 2039 estimate $14,171.81 $48,647.17 $63,202.23 2040 estimate $14,920.34 $50,776.47 $66,540.43 2041 estimate $15,708.40 $53,018.23 $70,054.95 2042 estimate $16,538.08 $55,378.39 $73,755.10 2043 estimate $17,411.59 $57,863.21 $77,650.69 2044 estimate $18,331.23 $60,479.28 $81,752.03 2045 estimate $19,299.44 $63,233.52 $86,070.00 2046 estimate $20,318.80 $66,133.23 $90,616.03 2047 estimate $21,391.99 $69,186.10 $95,402.17 2048 estimate $22,521.87 $72,400.21 $100,441.11 2049 estimate $23,711.43 $75,784.09 $105,746.19

Here it is using historical average GDP and historical average deficit to GDP.

Spending Debt GDP 2018 estimate $4,722.53 $21,999.45 $21,061.13 2019 estimate $4,883.10 $22,696.32 $21,777.21 2020 estimate $5,049.12 $23,416.88 $22,517.64 2021 estimate $5,220.79 $24,161.95 $23,283.24 2022 estimate $5,398.30 $24,932.34 $24,074.87 2023 estimate $5,581.84 $25,728.93 $24,893.41 2024 estimate $5,771.62 $26,552.61 $25,739.79 2025 estimate $5,967.86 $27,404.28 $26,614.94 2026 estimate $6,170.77 $28,284.92 $27,519.85 2027 estimate $6,380.57 $29,195.50 $28,455.52 2028 estimate $6,597.51 $30,137.03 $29,423.01 2029 estimate $6,821.83 $31,110.58 $30,423.39 2030 estimate $7,053.77 $32,117.23 $31,457.79 2031 estimate $7,293.60 $33,158.11 $32,527.35 2032 estimate $7,541.58 $34,234.37 $33,633.28 2033 estimate $7,797.99 $35,347.23 $34,776.81 2034 estimate $8,063.12 $36,497.92 $35,959.23 2035 estimate $8,337.27 $37,687.74 $37,181.84 2036 estimate $8,620.74 $38,918.02 $38,446.02 2037 estimate $8,913.84 $40,190.12 $39,753.19 2038 estimate $9,216.91 $41,505.47 $41,104.80 2039 estimate $9,530.29 $42,865.55 $42,502.36 2040 estimate $9,854.32 $44,271.86 $43,947.44 2041 estimate $10,189.37 $45,726.00 $45,441.65 2042 estimate $10,535.80 $47,229.57 $46,986.67 2043 estimate $10,894.02 $48,784.27 $48,584.21 2044 estimate $11,264.42 $50,391.82 $50,236.08 2045 estimate $11,647.41 $52,054.03 $51,944.10 2046 estimate $12,043.42 $53,772.76 $53,710.20 2047 estimate $12,452.90 $55,549.92 $55,536.35 2048 estimate $12,876.29 $57,387.51 $57,424.59 2049 estimate $13,314.09 $59,287.57 $59,377.02

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