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Well according to the Anderson forcast all the bad loans should be cleared out this year. The hing they don't say in the story is how many of the homes sold were bank owned sales.

I know I have jumped in with the closing at the end of the month, but I still see another 5-10% drop by the end of 2008.

There is a big surge of alt-A option loans that are being served and should come on the market in Oct- Dec which will raise inventory. That should be it for the majority of the loans coming due.:)devil

I doubt the recovery will be as fast as some think and for sure will not balloon as some might hope, like NAR and the 10%/year appreciation...Please!:)sphss


California Home Market Shows First Signs of Recovery (Update3)

By Daniel Taub
June 18 (Bloomberg) -- The California housing market may be showing the first signs of a recovery after three years of declining sales and two years of rising foreclosures, the UCLA Anderson Forecast said today.
While home prices in the most populous U.S. state are still weak, the number of houses and condominiums changing hands in some parts of California is rising, according to the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles, which released its 127-page forecast for both the state and the U.S. today.
``The combination of steep price declines, lower interest rates and an easing of the credit crunch may now be bringing bargain-hunting buyers back into the market'' for California homes, Ryan Ratcliff, an Anderson Forecast economist, wrote in the report. Riverside County posted a year-on-year gain in the number of homes sold, he wrote.
The collapse of the subprime-mortgage market contributed to an increase in foreclosures as well as drops in home prices and sales in California. In the first quarter, mortgage defaults in the state rose 143 percent to the highest level in 15 years, according to La Jolla, California-based DataQuick Information Systems.
Foreclosures will probably continue to hurt California's housing market for the rest of this year and then start to moderate in 2009, the Anderson Forecast said. While a ``normal'' housing market ``is still a long way off,'' according to the report, the increase in home sales in some parts of the state is a positive sign.
`Dim Flicker'
``This is the very dim flicker of the light at the end of the tunnel,'' Ratcliff said in an interview. ``I can't say that I see an unambiguous sign of a turnaround, because by the time it's unambiguous, it's already been happening three or four months.''
Southern California house and condominium sales dropped 15 percent last month to the lowest level for a May in two decades as prices plunged 27 percent, DataQuick said earlier this week. The median home price in the region was $370,000 last month. The last time it was lower was in March 2004. San Francisco Bay Area home sales dropped 23 percent last month, DataQuick said today.
The number of homes sold dropped in every California county DataQuick tracks except Riverside, where home sales increased 4.1 percent. Foreclosure sales accounted for 57 percent of Riverside's May sales, the most of any Southern California county, DataQuick said.
Housing Pain
The price per square foot for a home in Sacramento, California's capital, dropped 31 percent in March from a year earlier to $160, while prices in San Diego declined 27 percent to $251 a square foot, according to a report released June 2 by New York-based Radar Logic Inc., a data company.
In California, the ``unprecedented speed of the price adjustment means that instead of several years of slow bleeding (like the 1990s), we have compressed the necessary adjustment into two years of intense housing pain,'' Ratcliff wrote in today's report. ``Mom always said it's better to just rip the Band-Aid off.''
 

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We just sold our home last month. We had owned it for 4 years, and MADE money.

LOCATION, LOCATION...........

People simply do not give enough thought of that when buying.



I actually think the market needs to drop a bit more in general. A million $ for a soap box, six feet from your neighbors........... just stupid. Another 10-15% would put prices where they should have been in the first place.


Darrell.
 

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I am in the business so take it for what it is worth, or ask Kilrtoy, he has all the answers.

I have written offers on 8 homes in the last 6 weeks. 7 of them had multiple offers, the least of which had 3. These are homes in the 600k range. The ones that are in good shape are selling FAST (the news would never tell you that), and the ones that are so-so are just plain NOT selling. There is alot of Sh*t houses on the market. My opinion is next year at this time will mark the bottom of the market. If the majority of loans reset in Sept.- Oct. people will not even be defaulting on them util Jan-Feb 09 and they will be on the market 2nd quarter of next year. When that inventory is gone I believe the prices will stabilize.

FWIW, San Diego has it's lowest inventory in 12 months, Sales have been up for the last 4 months, month over month. Stats can be skewed in any direction.

These declines are great for business. I am now able to put a hard working Teacher, Cop, Single Parent into a home of their own. In the past if you did not make 100k you could not even think of purchasing a home. I look forward to being able to help people who could not normally afford a home be able to now.
 

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I know bro, but I can't control that. I was just smart/lucky to not fall for the " I better buy a house now because prices will only continue going up " theory.
mmm, i did, or I feel like i did... who knows, its long term anyway
 

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Dan,

I already have you in mind when we are ready to jump, as long as you can drive down to our neck of the woods.:)
No problem at all just let me know when you are ready. If you want me to start keepin on eye out for something in particular just let me know.
Thanks!
 

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I think it depends on what City. Lake Havasu will drop some more maybe ALOT more the place does not have the jobs and now with gas at $4 that will thin out the people who want to boat there and have a 2nd home.
Thats just my take on it though.
 

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I think it depends on what City. Lake Havasu will drop some more maybe ALOT more the place does not have the jobs and now with gas at $4 that will thin out the people who want to boat there and have a 2nd home.
Thats just my take on it though.
Keep in mind that places like Havasu are gonna drop further and for a longer time as so-cal as that is what supports alot of that towns real estate and economy.
 

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Noticed a few homes on my street have sold that have been on the market for atleast a year.
 

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I am in the business so take it for what it is worth, or ask Kilrtoy, he has all the answers.

I have written offers on 8 homes in the last 6 weeks. 7 of them had multiple offers, the least of which had 3. These are homes in the 600k range. The ones that are in good shape are selling FAST (the news would never tell you that), and the ones that are so-so are just plain NOT selling. There is alot of Sh*t houses on the market. My opinion is next year at this time will mark the bottom of the market. If the majority of loans reset in Sept.- Oct. people will not even be defaulting on them util Jan-Feb 09 and they will be on the market 2nd quarter of next year. When that inventory is gone I believe the prices will stabilize.

FWIW, San Diego has it's lowest inventory in 12 months, Sales have been up for the last 4 months, month over month. Stats can be skewed in any direction.

These declines are great for business. I am now able to put a hard working Teacher, Cop, Single Parent into a home of their own. In the past if you did not make 100k you could not even think of purchasing a home. I look forward to being able to help people who could not normally afford a home be able to now.
I am seeing similiar situations. I'm helping a client looking for a house in the Eastvale area of Corona and we've written 5 offers now on REO's and ALL of them have had multiple offers including one that had 32 offers. All of these properties have only been on the market for a few days.

It is kind of refreshing to see buyers out there buying again. I think it can only help stimulate the economy in a positive way at this point.

I personally think in the OC area we are fairly near the bottom of the market and I think by the end of the year we will be there. Now the IE is a whole other ball game. I think we are still 10-18 months or so away from the complete bottom. There are TONS of great deals to be had here in the IE though if anyone is looking. When I say great deals I'm talking 30-50% of 12-24 months ago prices. I might be writing an offer on a house in La Verne that is listed for $328,000 that almost exactly one year ago sold for $555,000.
 

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I am in the business so take it for what it is worth, or ask Kilrtoy, he has all the answers.

I have written offers on 8 homes in the last 6 weeks. 7 of them had multiple offers, the least of which had 3. These are homes in the 600k range. The ones that are in good shape are selling FAST (the news would never tell you that), and the ones that are so-so are just plain NOT selling. There is alot of Sh*t houses on the market. My opinion is next year at this time will mark the bottom of the market. If the majority of loans reset in Sept.- Oct. people will not even be defaulting on them util Jan-Feb 09 and they will be on the market 2nd quarter of next year. When that inventory is gone I believe the prices will stabilize.

FWIW, San Diego has it's lowest inventory in 12 months, Sales have been up for the last 4 months, month over month. Stats can be skewed in any direction.

These declines are great for business. I am now able to put a hard working Teacher, Cop, Single Parent into a home of their own. In the past if you did not make 100k you could not even think of purchasing a home. I look forward to being able to help people who could not normally afford a home be able to now.
OK yes there are selctive areas that are not budging not budging on price at all and still selling. And then there are the rest which is the remaining 90% or so of the market which are falling faster than walmart prices....
 
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