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People are bidding up in the Phoenix market. Sales volume has doubled from last year. Still some good bargins out there and money is cheap if you can get it.
 

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Bottom is close......expect one last surge in foreclosures this summer. There is ALOT of them coming due to a hold on them in the winter months! There is definetly light at the end of the tunnel!

Keep in mind the response to a declining market is a flat market, not an upward market.
 

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Some areas probably have seen the bottom, or close to, others probably not. Bloomberg reported yesterday that foreclusers reached and all-time highr during the first quarter. The most interesting part was that of all the new foreclosures, 29% were to prime borrowers with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Some due to job loss others due to walk-aways.

I also heard that most of the activity is investors on the low end scooping things up. There are very few buyers trading up. That being said, I'm not seeing many killer deals in the $600k to $750 range in north OC, at least not yet.
 

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We're seeing some people bailing on Taxafornia........and some good deals in the $400K to $600K that were previously in or above a million.
 

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Buffett Aide Sokol Says Housing, Economy Aren’t Near Recovery

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By Michael McKee

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing market is nowhere near recovery and signs of stabilization are premature, said David Sokol, a top aide to billionaire investor Warren Buffett who oversees the nation’s second-largest real estate brokerage.

Sokol was among money managers who told an investment conference in New York the economy is still deteriorating and they don’t have a lot of confidence in President Barack Obama’s economic policies.

“We’re not seeing the green shoots,” said Sokol, head of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., which owns HomeServices of America Inc. “We don’t see improvement.”

MidAmerican is owned by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and Sokol is considered a possible successor to Buffett as head of Berkshire. Sokol spoke before reports today showed new-home sales posted their second increase in three months during April, and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose to records in the first quarter.

Homes in the process of foreclosure are creating a “shadow backlog” of unsold properties that will continue to hang over the market, Sokol, 52, said in a speech yesterday at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference in New York.

While official statistics show a 10- to 12-month supply of unsold homes, “we believe the backlog of homes for sale is twice that.”

Balance in 2011

Many people who want or need to sell their homes haven’t put them on the market yet because the outlook for sales has been poor, he said. “It will be mid-2011 before we see the market in balance,” with no more than a six-month backlog, he said.

The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that the number of previously owned houses on the market in April climbed 8.8 percent to 3.97 million, a 10.2 months’ supply.

Sokol suggested government efforts to ease the crisis are actually drawing out the recovery. “We really need to let the economics work through the system,” he said.

It is still difficult and costly for businesses to borrow, Sokol said, creating “headwinds” for recovery. He predicted the U.S. unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent from April’s 8.9 percent.

Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal who now heads the $2 billion San Francisco-based hedge fund Clarium Capital Management LLC, told the conference the stock market’s recent gains will fade and the price of “long assets” such as houses will continue to fall, while Federal Reserve pump-priming will mean “inflation in all the wrong places.”

Solving ‘Wrong Problems’

The administration’s economic policy is aimed at solving “the wrong problems” by trying to raise short-term growth instead of creating conditions to improve long-term productivity. “We’ve had phenomenal growth but median incomes have barely gone up since 1971,” said Thiel, 41.

That’s because a drop in support for research and development means “there is far less happening than meets the eye” in science and technology. “Innovation is barely enough to keep up,” Thiel said. “There can’t be a V-shaped recovery until we fix the science problem.”

Paul Singer, founder of the $13 billion hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. in New York, said he sees a period of volatility ahead, as “deflation, inflation and monetization clash over the next year or so.” A rush to impose new regulation on the financial industry may backfire, Singer, 64, said. “I rue and fear this upcoming period of retribution,” he said.

‘Back to 2006’

Greenlight Capital Inc. founder David Einhorn accused the Obama administration of slowing recovery by trying to “take us back to 2006” economic conditions through deficit spending and by propping up failing institutions.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is “leading us down the wrong path” by refusing to force banks to recognize big losses in their portfolios and recapitalize, Einhorn, 40, said. Instead, Geithner is counting on banks to earn their way out of trouble as the economy recovers, a strategy that postpones expansion, he said. “Hope is not a good strategy.”

Einhorn, who announced at last year’s Sohn Conference that he was betting against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., criticized Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for their handling of the financial crisis. “Why wasn’t more done between Bear Stearns and Lehman to protect the system?” he asked.

Peter Schiff, who oversees about $1 billion as president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Connecticut, also criticized the combination of deficit spending by the government and a massive expansion of bank reserves by the Fed, saying they risk “out of control” inflation.

“We can’t solve a problem brought on by too much borrowing and lending by more borrowing and lending,” he said. Schiff, who forecast a debt-driven recession three years ago, said the Fed’s purchase of many of the new Treasury securities issued to fund the deficit resembles a Ponzi scheme.

“I don’t know why they got Bernie Madoff in jail,” Schiff said. “They ought to make him secretary of the Treasury.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael McKee in New York at [email protected].

Last Updated: May 28, 2009 12:17 EDT
 

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Some areas probably have seen the bottom, or close to, others probably not. Bloomberg reported yesterday that foreclusers reached and all-time highr during the first quarter. The most interesting part was that of all the new foreclosures, 29% were to prime borrowers with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Some due to job loss others due to walk-aways.

I also heard that most of the activity is investors on the low end scooping things up. There are very few buyers trading up. That being said, I'm not seeing many killer deals in the $600k to $750 range in north OC, at least not yet.
Theres one on my street thats now at $699K. And you know where I live. :)hand
 

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I just got an email notice that it just dropped to $669k. I can't quite afford your lifestyle with fancy golf carts and all, someday.
$669K :|err Oh well I have 8 more years until I retire. :D The golf cart maybe for sale since I got the Rhino. :)devil
 

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Up over 5% in San Diego from last month .... has the bottom come and gone??
We have noticed that on all offers made for our clients on home purchases, we are competing against A LOT of other would be purchasers. Most listings are getting their top asking price or in some cases get a bidding war for over the asking price. I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but the signs are positive.
 

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Bottom is close......expect one last surge in foreclosures this summer. There is ALOT of them coming due to a hold on them in the winter months! There is definetly light at the end of the tunnel!

Keep in mind the response to a declining market is a flat market, not an upward market.
x2.

In the Inland Empire, SGV, and Parts of OC the homes under 450k have been very stable the past 6 months. However, in the about 500k -1,000,000 range prices have been falling. I think the 500k-1mil range will continue to fall until we start seeing more of the "move up buyers".

Our inventory has also dropped signifigantly (mainly in the 450k below range). Which means less homes to chose from.

An economic anylist would say we have about a 3 month supply of homes on the market. If you take the amount of availible homes and factor the % selling you will get this number. Meaning, if no other homes came availible, it would take 3 months to sell everything. In a normal/ healthy market 2-3 months is very realistic timeframe to sell a home. So we are seeing a more normal market coming for the 450k and below range. Compared to 2007, we had a 25 month supply of home availible. Now I know every area is different, but here in So CA we are seeing some light.
 

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x2.

In the Inland Empire, SGV, and Parts of OC the homes under 450k have been very stable the past 6 months. However, in the about 500k -1,000,000 range prices have been falling. I think the 500k-1mil range will continue to fall until we start seeing more of the "move up buyers".

Our inventory has also dropped signifigantly (mainly in the 450k below range). Which means less homes to chose from.

An economic anylist would say we have about a 3 month supply of homes on the market. If you take the amount of availible homes and factor the % selling you will get this number. Meaning, if no other homes came availible, it would take 3 months to sell everything. In a normal/ healthy market 2-3 months is very realistic timeframe to sell a home. So we are seeing a more normal market coming for the 450k and below range. Compared to 2007, we had a 25 month supply of home availible. Now I know every area is different, but here in So CA we are seeing some light.

I think alot of people pulled there homes off the market so the inventory numbers are skewed. The only houses that are selling are repos and short sales and I imagine less than half of the people purchasing are going to live in the home. Investors are gobbeling up these homes and gonna look to rent or turn profits in the future.

I don't think were seeing a whole lot of person to person sales unless someone wants to give there home away.
 

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I think alot of people pulled there homes off the market so the inventory numbers are skewed. The only houses that are selling are repos and short sales and I imagine less than half of the people purchasing are going to live in the home. Investors are gobbeling up these homes and gonna look to rent or turn profits in the future.

I don't think were seeing a whole lot of person to person sales unless someone wants to give there home away.

You are correct, many investors are trying to get into the market. However, I've been pulling the last 6 months of sales from title and over 70% of them are owner occupied. Most of the investors with cash are coming in at the trustee sales and either renting them or flipping them for small quick profiets.. I know your thinking Im crazy when I saw flipping, but its really happening... not often but a very small percentage of guys are doing it.

True, we aren't seeing very many person to person sales, more bank to person sales (short sale/ REO). There are still normal person to person sales, there are still people with equity that want to or need to move. The number is small, but it still exists.

Yes, some of the lower inventory #s does have to do with people with overpriced homes. Non-realistic or upside down sellers have brought their homes off the market and finally faced reality that they missed the exit. The number have bank owned properites has also dropped. We keep hearing we will see 1 more flood of repos, so we are waiting...
 
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I think alot of people pulled there homes off the market so the inventory numbers are skewed. The only houses that are selling are repos and short sales and I imagine less than half of the people purchasing are going to live in the home. Investors are gobbeling up these homes and gonna look to rent or turn profits in the future.

I don't think were seeing a whole lot of person to person sales unless someone wants to give there home away.
I spoke with a local Realtor at a Sushi bar a few weeks ago. She claims that she has five time the buyers than she had available properties in the N OC area.
 

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I spoke with a local Realtor at a Sushi bar a few weeks ago. She claims that she has five time the buyers than she had available properties in the N OC area.

Very true indeed. Its kinda funny that its no longer hard to find the people whom want to buy and qaulify, but now its a pain find them a home.
 

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I spoke with a local Realtor at a Sushi bar a few weeks ago. She claims that she has five time the buyers than she had available properties in the N OC area.
Was she drinking lots of saki...lol

Thats an ubsurd statement. What she should have said is I have a ton of investors that want to steal a house for pennies on the dollar but the banks are not accepting there offers;):)sphss
 
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