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Home Prices Rising!

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prices rising
5K views 82 replies 34 participants last post by  riverfun 
#1 ·
Up over 5% in San Diego from last month .... has the bottom come and gone??
 
#3 ·
Bottom is close......expect one last surge in foreclosures this summer. There is ALOT of them coming due to a hold on them in the winter months! There is definetly light at the end of the tunnel!

Keep in mind the response to a declining market is a flat market, not an upward market.
 
#13 · (Edited)
Bottom is close......expect one last surge in foreclosures this summer. There is ALOT of them coming due to a hold on them in the winter months! There is definetly light at the end of the tunnel!

Keep in mind the response to a declining market is a flat market, not an upward market.
x2.

In the Inland Empire, SGV, and Parts of OC the homes under 450k have been very stable the past 6 months. However, in the about 500k -1,000,000 range prices have been falling. I think the 500k-1mil range will continue to fall until we start seeing more of the "move up buyers".

Our inventory has also dropped signifigantly (mainly in the 450k below range). Which means less homes to chose from.

An economic anylist would say we have about a 3 month supply of homes on the market. If you take the amount of availible homes and factor the % selling you will get this number. Meaning, if no other homes came availible, it would take 3 months to sell everything. In a normal/ healthy market 2-3 months is very realistic timeframe to sell a home. So we are seeing a more normal market coming for the 450k and below range. Compared to 2007, we had a 25 month supply of home availible. Now I know every area is different, but here in So CA we are seeing some light.
 
#4 ·
Some areas probably have seen the bottom, or close to, others probably not. Bloomberg reported yesterday that foreclusers reached and all-time highr during the first quarter. The most interesting part was that of all the new foreclosures, 29% were to prime borrowers with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Some due to job loss others due to walk-aways.

I also heard that most of the activity is investors on the low end scooping things up. There are very few buyers trading up. That being said, I'm not seeing many killer deals in the $600k to $750 range in north OC, at least not yet.
 
#7 ·
Some areas probably have seen the bottom, or close to, others probably not. Bloomberg reported yesterday that foreclusers reached and all-time highr during the first quarter. The most interesting part was that of all the new foreclosures, 29% were to prime borrowers with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. Some due to job loss others due to walk-aways.

I also heard that most of the activity is investors on the low end scooping things up. There are very few buyers trading up. That being said, I'm not seeing many killer deals in the $600k to $750 range in north OC, at least not yet.
Theres one on my street thats now at $699K. And you know where I live. :)hand
 
#6 ·
Buffett Aide Sokol Says Housing, Economy Aren’t Near Recovery

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By Michael McKee

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing market is nowhere near recovery and signs of stabilization are premature, said David Sokol, a top aide to billionaire investor Warren Buffett who oversees the nation’s second-largest real estate brokerage.

Sokol was among money managers who told an investment conference in New York the economy is still deteriorating and they don’t have a lot of confidence in President Barack Obama’s economic policies.

“We’re not seeing the green shoots,” said Sokol, head of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co., which owns HomeServices of America Inc. “We don’t see improvement.”

MidAmerican is owned by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, and Sokol is considered a possible successor to Buffett as head of Berkshire. Sokol spoke before reports today showed new-home sales posted their second increase in three months during April, and mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures rose to records in the first quarter.

Homes in the process of foreclosure are creating a “shadow backlog” of unsold properties that will continue to hang over the market, Sokol, 52, said in a speech yesterday at the Ira W. Sohn Investment Research Conference in New York.

While official statistics show a 10- to 12-month supply of unsold homes, “we believe the backlog of homes for sale is twice that.”

Balance in 2011

Many people who want or need to sell their homes haven’t put them on the market yet because the outlook for sales has been poor, he said. “It will be mid-2011 before we see the market in balance,” with no more than a six-month backlog, he said.

The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that the number of previously owned houses on the market in April climbed 8.8 percent to 3.97 million, a 10.2 months’ supply.

Sokol suggested government efforts to ease the crisis are actually drawing out the recovery. “We really need to let the economics work through the system,” he said.

It is still difficult and costly for businesses to borrow, Sokol said, creating “headwinds” for recovery. He predicted the U.S. unemployment rate would rise above 10 percent from April’s 8.9 percent.

Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal who now heads the $2 billion San Francisco-based hedge fund Clarium Capital Management LLC, told the conference the stock market’s recent gains will fade and the price of “long assets” such as houses will continue to fall, while Federal Reserve pump-priming will mean “inflation in all the wrong places.”

Solving ‘Wrong Problems’

The administration’s economic policy is aimed at solving “the wrong problems” by trying to raise short-term growth instead of creating conditions to improve long-term productivity. “We’ve had phenomenal growth but median incomes have barely gone up since 1971,” said Thiel, 41.

That’s because a drop in support for research and development means “there is far less happening than meets the eye” in science and technology. “Innovation is barely enough to keep up,” Thiel said. “There can’t be a V-shaped recovery until we fix the science problem.”

Paul Singer, founder of the $13 billion hedge fund Elliott Management Corp. in New York, said he sees a period of volatility ahead, as “deflation, inflation and monetization clash over the next year or so.” A rush to impose new regulation on the financial industry may backfire, Singer, 64, said. “I rue and fear this upcoming period of retribution,” he said.

‘Back to 2006’

Greenlight Capital Inc. founder David Einhorn accused the Obama administration of slowing recovery by trying to “take us back to 2006” economic conditions through deficit spending and by propping up failing institutions.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is “leading us down the wrong path” by refusing to force banks to recognize big losses in their portfolios and recapitalize, Einhorn, 40, said. Instead, Geithner is counting on banks to earn their way out of trouble as the economy recovers, a strategy that postpones expansion, he said. “Hope is not a good strategy.”

Einhorn, who announced at last year’s Sohn Conference that he was betting against Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., criticized Geithner, former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke for their handling of the financial crisis. “Why wasn’t more done between Bear Stearns and Lehman to protect the system?” he asked.

Peter Schiff, who oversees about $1 billion as president of Euro Pacific Capital in Darien, Connecticut, also criticized the combination of deficit spending by the government and a massive expansion of bank reserves by the Fed, saying they risk “out of control” inflation.

“We can’t solve a problem brought on by too much borrowing and lending by more borrowing and lending,” he said. Schiff, who forecast a debt-driven recession three years ago, said the Fed’s purchase of many of the new Treasury securities issued to fund the deficit resembles a Ponzi scheme.

“I don’t know why they got Bernie Madoff in jail,” Schiff said. “They ought to make him secretary of the Treasury.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael McKee in New York at mmckee@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: May 28, 2009 12:17 EDT
 
#11 ·
We have noticed that on all offers made for our clients on home purchases, we are competing against A LOT of other would be purchasers. Most listings are getting their top asking price or in some cases get a bidding war for over the asking price. I don't think we're out of the woods just yet, but the signs are positive.
 
#21 ·
i know for a fact nov/dec 09 will be the bottom out...thats when my invester told me to wait till to buy another house..but its getting close..almost all the foreclosures in my tract r sold.
 
#40 ·
For a fact, ey?
 
#23 ·
There will be a flood of REO's this summer, followed by a long stream of ORDINARY/prime folks losing their homes due to the suck azz economy.

The last go-around of ordinary folks losing their homes lasted 5 years.
 
#32 ·
On 4-29 I picked 10 houses off of MLS in Havasu to look at out of the 155 listed for less than 100K. By the time I got to Havi, all 10 were under contract. Went boating. Checked the same MLS on 5-7 and only 35 homes where listed. That's 120 homes off the market in a week. Where'd they all go. Certainly they didn't sell all of them.
 
#33 ·
The banks are manipulating the inventory and their books for that matter.

Also, a big portion of the upcoming foreclosures are all the currently listed short sales that will eventually end up in foreclosure because of the difficulty working with the lenders on the short sales, or how long they take to finalize.
 
#52 ·
The reason that prices seem to be inching up in some areas is because there are over 50,0000 forclosed homes in San Diego, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties due to the forclosure moritorium in response to President Obama's mortagage bail out plan. The banks delayed the forclosure process and delayed sending owners into default to give the plan a chance to work. Now that it hasnt there is and incredible back log of Forclosed properties, many that are sitting vacant.

THe challenge for the banks is how to release all of these properties back into the market without sending values spiraling downward. THis is the reason that you may see these so called bidding wars on certain homes. Dont be fooled, the market is not going up at all.
 
#59 ·
My son is trying to buy a short sale home for $300K in Glendora...I hope it's not a mistake on his part.
 
#68 ·
Over all it's a pretty hot market between 200k-450k from Phoenix to LA, orange and SD counties. I'm a broker and do business in both states.

The government moratorium on foreclosures is now over and we will see inventory pick up over the summer.

70% of the current sales in Socal and Phoenix are Bank owned. So they dictate the market.

Short Sales make up 8% of the current sales.

Odds are not very good for traditional sellers...

FHA is offering 100% financing on their Bank owned inventory.

We bought a awesome home in Scottsdale back in February that was a company owned relo property that was over priced for over a year.

The deals are out there....:)hand
 
#69 ·
The deals may be out there but I'm haveing a helluva time finding anything decent in East Fullerton for central/west Yorba Linda. There is still a lot of over priced junk out there.

I'm not selling, just trying to by something else but not unless it suits our needs i.e. schools, parking, 4 bedrooms etc.
 
#70 · (Edited)
The deals may be out there but I'm haveing a helluva time finding anything decent in East Fullerton for central/west Yorba Linda. There is still a lot of over priced junk out there.

I'm not selling, just trying to by something else but not unless it suits our needs i.e. schools, parking, 4 bedrooms etc.

I suggest you give Dan a call. Discuss price range & areas. The good stuff goes fast. You and your good agent needs to have a hair trigger on showing and making an offer.

Be patient and work with a competent agent.

Your looking for the same thing everyone else is looking for in North OC.

Good luck!
 
#71 ·
We've been looking at houses in Havasu for a while, and they just keep going down. There's a few on the market that are very nice, but they want too much, as though they didn't get the memo on the economy. We looked at a beautiful Tuscan style house that was seriously incomplete, and the sellers had taken the towel rings, drawer pulls, etc. Sorry, we're not paying $500k for a fixer-upper in Havasu. We'd leave that house, and find one almost as nice for half the price - it is not lookking like the market is going up here yet....
 
#73 ·
Looked at a house that I liked yesterday that was stripped. My finance guy said that you cant get approved on a house that doesnt have heating and cooling and a stove. Whats with that? The house was cheap because it was stripped which would work good for me.
 
#76 ·
Are you planning to use FHA financing? If so, that would explain why. FHA has pretty strict guidelines that require the home to be in decent and liveable condition in order to get financed. A lot of the REO/bank owned homes out there right now do not qualify because they are thrashed or stripped.
 
#80 ·
This is probably the best time to buy a house if you plan on living there -or- renting it for at least the next 7 years. Prices & Interest Rates will probably never be this low again. The only down side is there wont be a lot of equity gains over the next 4-5 years, hence the 7+ years.
 
#83 ·
Renting may be working for some right now,but a house is meant to be a place to live!!! your primary residence is not a "investment" lets see how well you retire when you still have a rent payment for the rest of your life, its not pretty I know of a couple folks trying to do this and it really does not work. If you buy a home and PAY IT OFF when your are ready to retire you will only have minimal expenses (prop tax, repairs etc.) but not that huge (relative to not having any) payment every month. Now investment prop. is a different thing all together, but your home should be a purchase for the long haul. Also moving up every 3-5 years is not very smart for your entire life, once or twice ok, but not 4-7 times, you will never get it paid off and when you want to retire at 65 you will probably have 25 years left on your mortgage (only if you were smart enough to get a 30 year fixed) just my 2 cents.
 
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